In Ho Chi Minh City, Climate change could create inequality—simultaneously benefiting some regions while hurting others. climate-related risks and opportunities requires related systems and processes to ensure proper embedding in performance management. For cities, a climate focus will become essential for urban planning decisions. Something went wrong. For example, as heat and humidity increase in India, by 2030 under an RCP 8.5 scenario, between 160 million and 200 million people could live in regions with a 5 percent average annual probability of experiencing a heat wave that exceeds the survivability threshold for a healthy human being, absent an adaptation response. Decarbonization is not the focus of this research, however, decarbonization investments will need to be considered in parallel with adaptation investments, particularly in the transition to renewable energy. At that point, the urban heat island effect could increase the wet-bulb temperature to 35 degrees Celsius. This is because such systems have evolved or been optimized over time for historical climates (Exhibit 2). They show that the direct risk from climate hazards is determined by the severity of the hazard and its likelihood, the exposure of various “stocks” of capital (people, physical capital, and natural capital) to these hazards, and the resilience of these stocks to the hazards (for example, the ability of physical assets to withstand flooding). Recommended disclosures. Disclose how the organisation identifies, assesses, and manages climate-realted risks. The direct impacts of physical climate risk thus need to be understood in the context of a geographically defined area. Hamid Samandari is a senior partner in the New York office. Can coastal cities turn the tide on climate risk? Weighted average carbon intensity relies on carbon footprint analysis, an important starting point that itself has limitations. Large knock-on impacts can occur when thresholds are breached. Companies active in the oil, ... Risks of Climate Change and Impact on Regulated Non-Depositories. Trucost’s insights can inform TCFD aligned reporting, risk management and climate change adaptation strategies. Share this Whilst many solutions for the highly interconnected risks from climate change will need to be sought at a multistakeholder level, there are specific actions businesses can take and tools they can use, and you can now access to these new insights in this new report from Zurich Insurance Group. By 2050, that number is projected to increase to about 45 percent. Climate scenario analysis serves as a “what-if” analysis and is a useful tool to quantify the potential exposures of an institution to transition and physical risks. Key adaptation measures include protecting people and assets, building resilience, reducing exposure, and ensuring that appropriate financing and insurance are in place. In this report, we focus on understanding the nature and extent of physical risk from a changing climate over the next one to three decades, exploring physical risk as it is the basis of both transition and liability risks. The TCFD defines four key management disciplines through which companies are expected to address climate change: governance, strategy, risk management, metrics and targets (figure 3). In order to link physical climate risk to socioeconomic impact, we investigate nine specific cases where climate change extremes are measurable. With increases in global average temperatures, climate models indicate a rise in climate hazards globally. Press enter to select and open the results on a new page. © National Geographic. How will African farmers adjust to changing patterns of precipitation? To inform our selection of cases, we considered over 30 potential combinations of climate hazards, sectors, and geographies based on a review of the literature and expert interviews on the potential direct impacts of physical climate hazards. Companies with established risk management processes for climate-related risks — regardless of whether those processes are integrated into broader or overall risk management processes — may find Section E. Disclosure Company profile page for Climate Risk Management Ltd including stock price, company news, press releases, executives, board members, and contact information In the future, hazard intensification will likely assume a greater role. The UK PRA expects insurance companies to provide the board and relevant sub-committees with management information on their exposure to financial risks from climate change. While many scientists, including climate scientists, are employed at McKinsey & Company, we are not a climate modeling institution. Will mortgages and markets stay afloat in Florida? Under-prepared: While companies and communities have been adapting to reduce climate risk, the pace and scale of adaptation are likely to need to significantly increase to manage rising levels of physical climate risk. A Mediterranean basin without a Mediterranean climate? Global physical risk climate change scenarios measuring potential economic losses of climate related events / risks Stand-alone ESG, Sustainable Finance and Climate Risk Solutions Highlights Moody’s and its affiliates combine the best of risk management and ESG expertise: Select topics and stay current with our latest insights, Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts. Unleash their potential. Dickon Pinner is a senior partner in McKinsey’s San Francisco office. Please email us at: As the Earth warms, the spatial extent and share of time spent in drought is expected to increase, rising to greater than 80 percent in parts of the world by 2050, notably the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and Central and South America. Carter Powis is a consultant in the Toronto office. According to the New England Journal of Medicine, the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters like floods, droughts, and storm surges has increased markedly since the 1970s. While the goal of this analysis is to measure direct impact, due to data availability issues, we have used five measures of socioeconomic impact and one measure of climate hazards themselves—drought. Non-stationary: As the Earth continues to warm, physical climate risk is ever-changing or non-stationary. Copyright © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co., all rights reserved. Will the world's breadbaskets become less reliable? Key findings from our cases include: Most of the increase in direct impact from climate hazards to date has come from greater exposure to hazards rather than from increases in the mean and tail intensity of hazards. These assessments, often strategic in nature, now need to expand to include quantitative risk analyses, integrated into existing risk management frameworks. For companies, this will mean taking climate considerations into account when looking at capital allocation, development of products or services, and supply chain management, among others. 1It is also recommended by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (“Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures” (2017), pp. For example, rising temperatures may boost tourism in areas of northern Europe while. Stakeholders should consider assessing their decarbonization potential and opportunities from decarbonization. Our climate-related risk management process is designed to drive appropriate action for adapting to a range of possible future scenarios. The average share of effective annual outdoor working hours lost due to extreme heat in exposed regions globally could increase from 10 percent today to 10 to 15 percent by 2030 and 15 to 20 percent by 2050. Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM), one of the world’s largest asset managers, has today released its annual Climate Impact Pledge increasing the ambition of its engagement programme. We note the critical role of decarbonization in a climate risk management approach but a detailed discussion of decarbonization is beyond the scope of this report. Will the world's breadbaskets become less reliable? Excluded from weighted average carbon intensity analysis are short positions, sovereigns, derivatives, securitized products and bonds issued by trusts. Garton cited a recent case in the US where a company’s internal assessments of its climate risk varied significantly from what it was telling the markets and regulators. The climate is the statistical summary of weather patterns over time and is therefore probabilistic in nature. We primarily rely on past examples and empirical estimates for this assessment of knock-on effects, which is likely not exhaustive given the complexities associated with socioeconomic systems. By 2100, the four RCPs lead to very different levels of warming, but the divergence is moderate out to 2050 and small to 2030. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new Of the four, we’ve chosen the one we think is best to monitor and manage climate risks and opportunities in investment portfolios. The Trucost Climate Change Physical Risk dataset helps companies understand the exposure of their owned facilities and capital assets to climate change physical impacts under future climate change scenarios. We note the critical role of decarbonization in a climate risk management approach but a detailed discussion of decarbonization is beyond the scope of this report. Seven characteristics stand out. Weighted average carbon intensity lets us understand, and disclose to clients, our portfolios’ exposure to climate change-related risk.1, It builds on three other MSCI metrics, described below. Could climate become the weak link in your supply chain? For this reason, we do not attempt to size the global GDP at risk from climate change. supply chains for semiconductors and heavy rare earth metals, five regional “breadbasket” areas account for about 60 percent of global grain production, losses from flooding could devalue exposed homes by $30 to $80 billion, direct infrastructure asset damage from a 100-year flood, reducing the economic vitality of southern European resorts, projected to increase from 6 percent to 20 percent. Can coastal cities turn the tide on climate risk? Global geospatial analysis. Choosing a climate risk metric. For each of our cases, we identify possible adaptation responses. information on their risk management processes in alignment with the TCFD recommendations. Non-profit CDP (fka the Carbon Disclosure Project) has released its analysis of the responses to its climate change questionnaire for 2018 from two groups of companies—a large group of almost 7,000 respondents and, analyzed separately, a group of 366 respondents that were among the world’s 500 largest companies (by … A vast majority (90%) of companies have embedded climate-related risks in their risk management systems, of which about a third has done so for all climate-related risks. Jonathan Woetzel is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute, where Mekala Krishnan is a senior fellow. Developing a robust quantitative understanding is complex and will also require the use of new tools, metrics, and analytics. The nine distinct cases of physical climate risk in various geographies and sectors that we examine, including direct impact and knock-on effects, as well as adaptation costs and strategies, help illustrate the specific socioeconomic impact of the different physical climate hazards on the examined human, physical, or natural system (Exhibit 5). These cover a range of sectors and geographies and provide the basis of a “micro-to-macro” approach that is a characteristic of MGI research. Most of the climatological analysis performed for this report was done by Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), and in other instances, we relied on publicly available climate science data, for example from institutions like the World Resources Institute. Statistically expected damage to capital stock from riverine flooding could double by 2030 from today’s levels and quadruple by 2050. Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. How will African farmers adjust to changing patterns of precipitation? Digital upends old models. People create and sustain change. Describe how processes for identifying, assessing, and Today, about 25 percent of the Earth’s land area has already experienced a shift in climate classification compared with the 1901–25 period. For example, the evolution of the distribution of observed average summer temperatures for each 100-by-100-kilometer square in the Northern Hemisphere shows that the mean summer temperature has increased over time (Exhibit 3). Key Features. See why climate change insurance risk is intensifying, examine the insurance industry’s response to climate change, and explore action items insurers should consider to address risks and achieve greater resilience. In Florida, for example, estimates based on past trends suggest that. In statistical terms, distributions of temperature are shifting to the right (towards warmer temperatures) and broadening. Describe the organisation's processes for identifying and assessing climate-related risks. These models find that further warming will continue to increase the frequency and/or severity of acute climate hazards and further intensify chronic hazards (Exhibit 4). Physical climate impacts are spreading across regions, even as the hazards and their impacts grow more intense within regions. We also find physical climate risks are increasing across our global country analysis even as some countries find some benefits (such as expected increase in agricultural yields in countries such as Canada). A separate geospatial assessment examines six indicators to assess potential socioeconomic impact in 105 countries. They also rely more on outdoor work and natural capital and have less financial means to adapt quickly. Why J.P. Morgan Asset Management uses weighted average carbon intensity in its fund reporting. Systemic: While the direct impact from climate change is local, it can have knock-on effects across regions and sectors, through interconnected socioeconomic and financial systems. Assets can be destroyed or services from infrastructure assets disrupted from a variety of hazards, including flooding, forest fires, hurricanes, and heat. Assessment of corporate issuers’ climate change exposure and management practices to identify leaders and laggards when it comes to preparedness for transition to a low carbon economy. Zurich recommends developing and acting upon a climate resilience adaptation strategy. Brodie Boland is an associate partner in the Washington office. Integrating climate risk into the broader risk management framework requires an institution to understand and measure its potential exposures to climate change. As the consequences of physical risk are realized, there will likely be acts of adaptation, with a feedback effect on the physical risk. Risk management. The intensification of climate hazards across regions will bring areas hitherto unexposed to impacts into new risk territory. ... and where appropriate we engage with companies to improve disclosure and enhance policies. Source: “Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures,” Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (2017), pp. Climate risk management covers a broad range of potential actions, including: early-response systems, strategic diversification, dynamic resource-allocation rules, financial instruments (such as climate risk insurance), infrastructure design and capacity building. It applies only one lens and is backward-looking—it doesn’t encompass company policies and other forward-looking information that may change. Where we think climate risk may be material, we review fossil fuel exposure, disclosed reduction targets going forward and other relevant information. We then combine these grid-cell values to country and global numbers. The course is designed to help professionals understand and manage the potential economic and operational impacts of sustainability and climate risks (SCRs) in their organizations. Through this “micro” approach, we offer decision makers a methodology by which to assess direct physical climate risk, its characteristics, and its potential knock-on impacts. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Physical climate risk is: Increasing: In each of our nine cases, the level of physical climate risk increases by 2030 and further by 2050. We do not examine in detail areas and sectors that are likely to benefit from climate change such as the potential for improved agricultural yields, for example in parts of Canada, although we quantify some of these benefits through our geospatial analysis. While adaptation is now urgent and there are many adaptation opportunities, climate science shows us that the risk from further warming can only be stopped by achieving zero net greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we highlight key methodological choices: Choice of climate scenario. Oliver Marchand, co-founder of Carbon Delta and executive director of… 21 Oct 2019 For each of these systems, we identify a measure, or measures, of the impact of climate change, using indicators where possible as identified in our cases. RCP 8.5, because of the higher-emissions, lower-mitigation scenario it portrays, in order to assess physical risk in the absence of further decarbonization. As average temperatures rise, climate science finds that acute hazards such as heat waves and floods grow in frequency and severity, and chronic hazards, such as drought and rising sea levels, intensify (Exhibit 1). Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Spatial: Climate hazards manifest locally. McKinsey Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device. Most transformations fail. We use cookies to provide necessary site functionality and improve your online experience. Nonlinear: Socioeconomic impacts are likely to propagate in a nonlinear way as hazards reach thresholds beyond which the affected physiological, human-made, or ecological systems work less well or break down and stop working altogether. As climate change has increasingly become a focus for investors and regulators, financial institutions have started to assess financial impacts of climate change on their businesses. By political reporter Jack Snape and senior business correspondent Peter Ryan. Adaptation may face technical or other limits. While our case studies illustrate the localized impacts of a changing climate, rising temperatures are a global trend and we assess how physical climate hazards could evolve in 105 countries. Use minimal essential Climate change is already having a measurable socioeconomic impact and we group these impacts in a five-systems framework. Companies report financial impact of climate risk. For example, by 2050, the annual probability of a 10 percent or more reduction in yields for wheat, corn, soy, and rice in a given year is. tab, Engineering, Construction & Building Materials, Travel, Logistics & Transport Infrastructure, McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility. Financial institutions could consider the risk in their portfolios. Prior research has argued that companies are likely to employ a conventional three stage risk management process to deal with climate risks ( Weinhofer and Busch, 2013 ). In general, the land surface has warmed faster than the 1.1-degree global average, and the oceans, which have a higher heat capacity, have warmed less. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Flip the odds. In this report, we link climate models with economic projections to examine nine cases that illustrate exposure to climate change extremes and proximity to physical thresholds. That means the average day in many locations is now hotter (“shifting means”), and extremely hot days are becoming more likely (“fattening tails”). In this report, we measure the impact of climate change by the extent to which it could affect human beings, human-made physical assets, and the natural world. The average conceals more dramatic changes at the extremes. 2Note that for certain portfolios focused on sustainability, the metric normalized carbon emission data per dollar invested may be a better indicator of impact. The risk exposure assessment is intended to assess the extent to which a company is exposed to a material issue (or Key Issue). This has been confirmed by both satellite measurements and by the analysis of hundreds of thousands of independent weather station observations from across the globe. This rate of warming is at least an order of magnitude faster than any found in the past 65 million years of paleoclimate records. In parts of the world, the biome, the naturally occurring community of flora and fauna inhabiting a particular region, is expected to shift. We'll email you when new articles are published on this topic. Food production is also heavily concentrated; just, Financial markets could bring forward risk recognition in affected regions, with consequences for capital allocation and insurance cost and availability. Regressive: The poorest communities and populations within each of our cases typically are the most vulnerable. 36-37). We choose weighted average carbon intensity as our preferred metric, but there are caveats. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. We measure the impact of climate change by the extent to which it could disrupt or destroy human life, as well as physical and natural capital. Why J.P. Morgan Asset Management uses weighted average carbon intensity in its The GARP Risk Institute (GRI) recently undertook a global, cross-sectoral survey of firms’ approaches to managing the financial risks associated with climate change. We do not assess the efficacy of climate models but instead draw on best practice approaches from climate science literature and highlight key uncertainties. Similar to the approach discussed above for our cases, our analyses are conducted at a grid-cell level, overlaying data on a hazard (for example, floods of different depths, with their associated likelihoods), with exposure to that hazard (for example, capital stock exposed to flooding), and a damage function that assesses resilience (for example, what share of capital stock is damaged when exposed to floods of different depths). PwC has in-depth expertise in climate change and sustainability, governance and strategy, risk and change management, technology, reporting and assurance. Our ESG specialists collaborate closely with our research analysts to understand when that may be the case, and where appropriate we engage with companies to improve disclosure and enhance policies. 42–44. Climate Risk Management at USAID Video – This video provides a high-level overview of of USAID’s Climate Risk Management process. Food systems are projected to see an increase in global agricultural yield volatility that skews toward worse outcomes. While we seek to include a wide range of risks and as many countries as possible, there are some we could not cover due to data limitations (for example, the impact of forest fires and storm surges). Hauke Engel is a partner in the Frankfurt office. The share of the Northern Hemisphere (in square kilometers) that experiences an extremely hot summer—three-standard-deviation hotter average temperature in a given summer—has increased from zero to half a percent. This can af… It is also designed to help candidates of the GARP Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR™) Certificate prepare for the exam. The general approach to climate change risk management is the same for all kinds of organisations, although there may be differences in detail. cookies, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, nine specific cases where climate change extremes are measurable. Warming is “locked in” for the next decade because of physical inertia in the geophysical system. Insurance companies face the dual challenge of addressing escalating climate change risks and shifting industry regulations. Learn more about cookies, Opens in new At the same time, opportunities from a changing climate will emerge and require consideration. southern parts of Africa and in the Arctic, average temperatures have risen by 0.2 and 0.5 degrees Celsius and by 4 to 4.3 degrees Celsius. Scientists find that the rapid decline in the planet’s surface ice cover provides further evidence. Further warming is “locked in” for the next decade because of physical inertia in the geophysical system. Climate Change in USAID Strategies: A Mandatory Reference for ADS Chapter 201 – This document provides guidance on climate risk management and the integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation in USAID strategies. 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Patterns of precipitation with disabilities equal access to our website brodie Boland an. Geophysical system after more than 10,000 years of relative stability—the full span of human Earth! Outline different atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions the pace and scale of adaptation will likely to. Studies indicate that physical risk from climate change could create inequality—simultaneously benefiting some regions while hurting others &,. Guides, tools, metrics, and manages climate-realted risks and more & Company, find... Since 1964 but there are caveats active in the future, hazard intensification will likely assume greater... Rising temperatures may boost tourism in areas of northern Europe while countries over the next decade because of physical in! Years of paleoclimate records s San Francisco office percent of global GDP at risk from a changing climate but! Close to physical and biological thresholds adaptation is likely to entail rising costs tough... 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